LONDON — European oil refiners are facing a potential crude supply squeeze next month after Saudi Aramco reportedly told at least two European customers that they will receive no Saudi crude in October following the shutdown of the kingdom’s key East-West pipeline.
The disruption follows drone attacks that damaged three pumping stations along the pipeline, forcing Saudi Arabia to suspend operations and disrupting crude loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
European refiners normally receive Saudi crude through long-term contracts that provide regular monthly supplies. According to reports citing people familiar with the decision, the October allocations will not be delivered, with the move reportedly applying to European buyers more broadly. Saudi Aramco has not publicly confirmed the reported cancellations.
The potential disruption is significant for Europe. European OECD countries imported about 577,000 barrels of Saudi crude per day in June, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia is also among Europe’s major oil suppliers, having supplied almost 30 million tonnes of crude to the continent in 2025.
Pipeline shutdown disrupts key export route
The approximately 1,200-kilometre East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, transports crude from Saudi Arabia’s oil-producing regions in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast.
The route allows Saudi crude to reach international markets without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping chokepoint. The pipeline has been particularly important during the disruption of shipping through the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia is working to restore the pipeline. Reuters reported that Aramco is seeking to partially restart it within days and return it to full capacity within about six weeks.
The shutdown has already forced European buyers to look elsewhere for crude. Poland’s Orlen, one of the major European customers of Saudi oil, has secured alternative supplies from markets including the North Sea, while other refiners are also seeking replacement cargoes.
Pressure on European refiners
A prolonged interruption could increase competition for alternative crude grades and raise costs for European refiners. Analysts have warned that refiners may need to adjust their supply portfolios and turn to more distant suppliers if Saudi deliveries remain disrupted.
The effects could extend beyond crude markets to refined petroleum products. A prolonged shortage of crude could put pressure on diesel and other fuel supplies, potentially increasing costs for transport operators, businesses and consumers.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has been seeking alternative ways to maintain exports. Aramco has increased crude shipments from Gulf ports using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port, helping redirect some volumes that would otherwise have moved through the Red Sea.
For now, the scale and duration of the disruption remain uncertain. The key factor for European markets will be how quickly the East-West pipeline returns to operation and whether Saudi Arabia can maintain sufficient alternative export flows while repairs continue.
A prolonged shutdown would force European refiners to compete more aggressively for alternative crude supplies at a time when global oil markets are already facing significant geopolitical and logistical disruptions.
